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2015 NCHC Season Stats & Predictions (Final)



Team GP Goals ForGoals A.Shots ForShots A.Shot %Save %Possession %PredictionModel PtsReal Pts
North Dakota 24 72 55 749 759 9.61% 92.75% 49.7% 48 (1) 43 (1) 50
Miami 24 73 60 812 659 8.99% 90.90% 55.2% 34 (6) 42 (2) 44
St. Cloud State 24 69 56 752 649 9.18% 91.37% 53.7% 36 (3t) 42 (3)* 34
Denver 24 79 68 753 727 10.49% 90.65% 50.9% 36 (3t) 42 (4) 41
Nebraska Omaha 24 67 56 660 760 10.15% 92.63% 46.5% 41 (2) 42 (5) 43
Minnesota-Duluth 24 68 59 761 675 8.95% 91.26% 53.0% 36 (3t) 40 (6) 39
Western Michigan 24 51 73 691 696 7.38% 89.51% 49.8% 30 (7) 23 (7) 27
Colorado College 24 41 94 602 828 6.81% 88.65% 42.1% 27 (8) 9 (8) 10

Updated 03-08-2015. All predictions +/-2.425 points.

*Note: Model is overvaluing SCSU for lopsided wins against weak opponents. Adjusted expected points is 37.7.

This chart predicts the final points each NCHC team will earn in the 2014-15 season. Goals for, goals against, shots for, shots against, shot percentage, save percentage, and possession data are real game data.

"Prediction" notes the predicted final points I made prior to the 2014-15 season.

"Model Pts" represents to-date results of a regression model to predict final points/standings.



More NCHC Hockey Analysis




NCHC Shot Results
Feb. 22 - Breaking down NCHC shooting and outcomes.


Game Situation Preference
Feb. 12 - Home vs. road & Friday vs. Saturday performance.


NCHC Tournament Simulator
Uses shot-metric-based probabilities to predict Frozen Faceoff winner.

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
117-OctNorth DakotaL01332393.13%92.31%3.13%92.31%45.1%08.3
218-OctNorth DakotaL02723358.70%80.00%5.45%86.49%42.6%0-3.3
37-NovMiamiL00321410.00%92.68%3.95%88.70%39.8%0-5.2
48-NovMiamiL01516416.25%87.80%4.35%88.46%37.1%0-6.4
514-NovDenverL01826353.85%77.14%4.24%86.39%38.2%0-12.9
65-DecMinnesota DuluthL02323338.70%90.91%4.96%87.05%38.6%0-7.2
76-DecMinnesota DuluthL027184311.11%83.72%5.66%86.52%37.3%0-7.0
812-DecW MichiganL023202910.00%89.66%6.15%86.82%37.7%0-3.5
913-DecW MichiganT11126363.85%97.22%5.85%87.95%38.2%1-0.7
1016-JanNebraska OmahaW343242916.67%89.66%6.99%88.09%38.8%45.3
1117-JanNebraska OmahaL01428143.57%71.43%6.61%87.47%40.7%43.2
1223-JanNorth DakotaL01231283.23%92.86%6.25%87.84%41.7%43.8
1324-JanNorth DakotaL01422344.55%88.24%6.13%87.87%41.5%43.2
1430-JanSt. Cloud StateL01722334.55%78.79%6.02%87.23%41.4%40.5
1531-JanSt. Cloud StateL01624424.17%85.71%5.90%87.11%41.0%4-0.8
166-FebDenverL00330280.00%89.29%5.44%87.22%41.7%4-1.8
1713-FebMiamiL01323344.35%91.18%5.38%87.46%41.6%4-1.4
1814-FebMiamiL01227333.70%93.94%5.28%87.81%41.8%4-0.5
1920-FebDenverL046382710.53%77.78%5.70%87.38%42.8%40.9
2021-FebDenverL036264611.54%86.96%6.00%87.35%42.4%41.7
2127-FebW MichiganT12225528.00%96.15%6.10%87.98%41.8%53.6
2228-FebW MichiganW350262719.23%100.00%6.72%88.41%42.1%88.0
236-MarNebraska OmahaT22224348.33%94.12%6.78%88.65%42.0%109.1
247-MarNebraska OmahaL02427357.41%88.57%6.81%88.65%42.1%109.3

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
124-OctMinnesota DuluthW331223113.64%96.77%13.64%96.77%41.5%365.6
225-OctMinnesota DuluthL01630483.33%87.50%7.69%91.14%39.7%319.2
37-NovW MichiganW354352814.29%85.71%10.34%89.72%44.8%631.0
48-NovW MichiganL03638267.89%76.92%9.60%87.22%48.4%623.5
514-NovColorado CollegeW381352622.86%96.15%12.50%88.68%50.2%943.1
612-DecNorth DakotaW341293013.79%96.67%12.70%89.59%50.0%1248.0
713-DecNorth DakotaL01333263.06%88.46%11.26%89.77%50.8%1242.1
89-JanNebraska OmahaL045282714.29%81.48%11.60%88.84%50.8%1240.6
910-JanNebraska OmahaL00139230.00%95.65%10.03%89.43%52.2%1237.5
1016-JanSt. Cloud StateW33135278.57%96.30%9.88%90.07%52.6%1539.5
1117-JanSt. Cloud StateW341302913.33%96.55%10.17%90.65%52.4%1842.5
1223-JanMiamiW331242812.50%96.43%10.32%91.12%52.0%2144.1
1324-JanMiamiL01422344.55%88.24%10.00%90.86%51.1%2140.6
1430-JanMinnesota DuluthW332293010.34%93.33%10.02%91.04%51.0%2441.1
1531-JanMinnesota DuluthL02433366.06%88.89%9.74%90.87%50.7%2439.0
166-FebColorado CollegeW330283010.71%100.00%9.80%91.44%50.6%2741.0
1713-FebNorth DakotaL024203610.00%88.89%9.80%91.26%49.8%2739.4
1814-FebNorth DakotaT23337388.11%92.11%9.69%91.32%49.7%2939.0
1920-FebColorado CollegeW364273822.22%89.47%10.28%91.20%49.3%3240.7
2021-FebColorado CollegeW363462613.04%88.46%10.48%91.09%50.1%3542.2
2127-FebMiamiL035262711.54%81.48%10.53%90.68%50.1%3541.0
2228-FebMiamiW362472112.77%90.48%10.68%90.68%51.0%3842.9
236-MarSt. Cloud StateW332244212.50%95.24%10.74%90.95%50.4%4143.2
247-MarSt. Cloud StateL02436205.56%80.00%10.49%90.65%50.9%4141.8

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
131-OctMinnesota DuluthW33238287.89%92.86%7.89%92.86%57.58%347.9
21-NovMinnesota DuluthL03433409.09%90.00%8.45%91.18%51.08%334.9
37-NovColorado CollegeW33041217.32%100.00%8.04%93.26%55.72%646.8
48-NovColorado CollegeW351411612.20%93.75%9.15%93.33%59.30%958.2
514-NovNorth DakotaW332302310.00%91.30%9.29%92.97%58.84%1256.7
615-NovNorth DakotaL01429273.45%85.19%8.49%91.61%57.8%1246.8
721-NovW MichiganW31028233.57%100.00%7.92%92.70%57.4%1547.2
822-NovW MichiganW352322515.63%92.00%8.82%92.61%57.3%1850.6
95-DecNebraska OmahaW382302626.67%92.31%10.60%92.58%56.9%2157.6
106-DecNebraska OmahaL02542254.76%80.00%9.88%91.34%57.5%2151.5
119-JanSt. Cloud StateL01338372.63%91.89%9.16%91.41%56.8%2147.3
1210-JanSt. Cloud StateL023192910.53%89.66%9.23%91.25%55.6%2145.1
1323-JanDenverL01328243.57%87.50%8.86%90.99%55.5%2142.5
1424-JanDenverW341342211.76%95.45%9.07%91.26%55.9%2444.9
1531-JanW MichiganT23342277.14%88.89%8.91%91.09%56.2%2644.3
161-FebW MichiganW343392810.26%89.29%9.01%90.97%56.4%2944.5
1713-FebColorado CollegeW33134238.82%95.65%9.00%91.22%56.6%3245.6
1814-FebColorado CollegeW32133276.06%96.30%8.84%91.51%56.5%3545.7
1920-FebMinnesota DuluthL01331323.23%90.63%8.57%91.45%56.1%3543.7
2021-FebMinnesota DuluthW34349228.16%86.36%8.54%91.24%56.8%3844.1
2127-FebDenverW353272618.52%88.46%8.91%91.11%56.6%4144.9
2228-FebDenverL02621479.52%87.23%8.93%90.80%55.3%4141.8
236-MarNorth DakotaL01244272.27%92.59%8.56%90.88%55.6%4141.0
247-MarNorth DakotaW363293420.69%91.18%8.99%90.90%55.2%4442.3

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
124-OctDenverL01331223.23%86.36%3.23%86.36%58.5%07.6
225-OctDenverW361483012.50%96.67%8.86%92.31%60.3%355.5
331-OctMiamiL02328387.14%92.11%8.41%92.22%54.3%342.8
41-NovMiamiW343403310.00%90.91%8.84%91.87%54.4%643.7
57-NovSt. Cloud StateW332213514.29%94.29%9.52%92.41%51.5%944.3
68-NovSt. Cloud StateW331292710.34%96.30%9.64%92.97%51.6%1246.7
721-NovNebraska OmahaW33236248.33%91.67%9.44%92.82%52.7%1546.9
822-NovNebraska OmahaL01440182.50%77.78%8.42%91.63%54.6%1541.3
95-DecColorado CollegeW33233239.09%91.30%8.50%91.60%55.0%1842.2
106-DecColorado CollegeW372431816.28%88.89%9.46%91.42%56.6%2148.3
119-JanNorth DakotaW341372410.81%95.83%9.59%91.78%56.9%2450.6
1210-JanNorth DakotaL02543334.65%84.85%9.09%91.08%56.9%2446.1
1316-JanW MichiganT12226167.69%87.50%9.01%90.91%57.2%2545.6
1417-JanW MichiganL02427277.41%85.19%8.92%90.49%56.7%2543.1
1530-JanDenverL02330296.67%89.66%8.79%90.43%56.3%2541.7
1631-JanDenverW342363311.11%93.94%8.94%90.70%56.0%2842.7
1713-FebSt. Cloud StateW342342011.76%90.00%9.11%90.67%56.4%3144.0
1814-FebSt. Cloud StateL01422284.55%85.71%8.94%90.38%55.8%3141.3
1920-FebMiamiW33132319.38%96.77%8.96%90.77%55.5%3442.3
2021-FebMiamiL034224913.64%91.84%9.12%90.86%54.1%3441.0
2127-FebNebraska OmahaT11126303.85%96.67%8.92%91.16%53.8%3540.6
2228-FebNebraska OmahaT11128293.57%96.55%8.71%91.41%53.6%3640.3
236-MarW MichiganW363312819.35%89.29%9.15%91.32%53.5%3941.8
247-MarW MichiganL00318300.00%90.00%8.94%91.26%53.0%3939.9

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
117-OctColorado CollegeW33139327.69%96.88%7.69%96.88%54.9%356.0
218-OctColorado CollegeW372352320.00%91.30%13.51%94.55%57.4%677.7
314-NovMiamiL02323308.70%90.00%12.37%92.94%53.3%661.0
415-NovMiamiW341272914.81%96.55%12.90%93.86%52.1%964.6
521-NovSt. Cloud StateL01327343.70%91.18%11.26%93.24%50.5%953.3
622-NovSt. Cloud StateW33239297.69%93.10%10.53%93.22%51.8%1251.7
728-NovNebraska OmahaT12226307.69%93.33%10.19%93.24%51.1%1349.3
829-NovNebraska OmahaW332233413.04%94.12%10.46%93.36%49.8%1649.3
912-DecDenverL01430293.33%86.21%9.67%92.59%49.9%1643.4
1013-DecDenverW331263311.54%96.97%9.83%93.07%49.3%1945.0
119-JanMinnesota DuluthL01424374.17%89.19%9.40%92.65%48.4%1940.6
1210-JanMinnesota DuluthW352334315.15%95.35%9.94%92.95%47.9%2243.3
1323-JanColorado CollegeW32128317.14%96.77%9.74%93.24%47.9%2543.4
1424-JanColorado CollegeW353352814.29%89.29%10.12%92.99%48.4%2844.9
1530-JanNebraska OmahaL02335315.71%90.32%9.78%92.81%48.8%2843.2
1631-JanNebraska OmahaW34342349.52%91.18%9.76%92.70%49.2%3143.3
1713-FebDenverW342362011.11%90.00%9.85%92.60%50.0%3444.4
1814-FebDenverT13338377.89%91.89%9.72%92.55%50.1%3543.7
1920-FebW MichiganW33133349.09%97.06%9.68%92.81%50.0%3844.3
2021-FebW MichiganW332303610.00%94.44%9.70%92.90%49.8%4144.4
2127-FebSt. Cloud StateW332302410.00%91.67%9.71%92.86%50.0%4444.6
2228-FebSt. Cloud StateW331292810.34%96.43%9.74%93.00%50.1%4745.3
236-MarMiamiW32127447.41%97.73%9.65%93.29%49.5%5045.1
247-MarMiamiL03634298.82%79.31%9.61%92.75%49.7%5043.4

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
117-OctW MichiganW352263919.23%94.87%19.23%94.87%40.0%382.4
218-OctW MichiganW330241812.50%100.00%16.00%96.49%46.7%680.3
321-NovMinnesota DuluthL02324368.33%91.67%13.51%94.62%44.3%660.6
422-NovMinnesota DuluthW341184022.22%97.50%15.22%95.49%40.9%967.6
528-NovNorth DakotaT22230266.67%92.31%13.11%94.97%43.4%1159.1
629-NovNorth DakotaL02334235.88%86.96%11.54%93.96%46.2%1151.7
75-DecMiamiL02826307.69%73.33%10.99%91.04%46.2%1139.7
86-DecMiamiW352254220.00%95.24%12.08%91.73%44.9%1445.3
912-DecSt. Cloud StateW332234913.04%95.92%12.17%92.41%43.2%1746.2
1013-DecSt. Cloud StateW353322715.63%88.89%12.60%92.12%44.3%2048.2
119-JanDenverW354272818.52%85.71%13.15%91.62%44.7%2349.4
1210-JanDenverW31023394.35%100.00%12.50%92.44%44.0%2648.6
1316-JanColorado CollegeL034292410.34%83.33%12.32%91.92%44.8%2646.9
1417-JanColorado CollegeW341142828.57%96.43%12.96%92.20%44.2%2950.0
1530-JanNorth DakotaW33231359.68%94.29%12.69%92.36%44.4%3249.6
1631-JanNorth DakotaL03434428.82%90.48%12.38%92.21%44.4%3247.7
1713-FebW MichiganL01231293.23%93.10%11.75%92.25%44.8%3245.6
1814-FebW MichiganW33134298.82%96.55%11.55%92.47%45.4%3545.9
1920-FebSt. Cloud StateL034263911.54%89.74%11.55%92.30%45.1%3545.1
2021-FebSt. Cloud StateL00221320.00%93.75%11.09%92.37%44.8%3543.0
2127-FebMinnesota DuluthT21130263.33%96.15%10.68%92.51%45.2%3742.1
2228-FebMinnesota DuluthT21129283.45%96.43%10.32%92.67%45.5%3941.3
236-MarColorado CollegeT12234245.88%91.67%10.08%92.63%46.0%4040.8
247-MarColorado CollegeW342352711.43%92.59%10.15%92.63%46.5%4341.6

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
17-NovMinnesota DuluthL02335215.71%85.71%5.71%85.71%62.5%024.5
28-NovMinnesota DuluthL01327293.70%89.66%4.84%88.00%55.4%014.8
314-NovW MichiganW343183422.22%91.18%8.75%89.29%48.8%327.0
415-NovW MichiganT11122234.55%95.65%7.84%90.65%48.8%427.6
521-NovNorth DakotaW33134278.82%96.30%8.09%91.79%50.4%734.4
622-NovNorth DakotaL02329396.90%92.31%7.88%91.91%48.8%731.9
712-DecNebraska OmahaL02349234.08%86.96%7.01%91.33%52.2%730.6
813-DecNebraska OmahaL035273211.11%84.38%7.47%90.35%51.4%728.3
99-JanMiamiW33137388.11%97.37%7.55%91.35%51.1%1031.6
1010-JanMiamiW332291910.34%89.47%7.82%91.23%51.9%1333.3
1116-JanDenverL01327353.70%91.43%7.49%91.25%51.1%1330.9
1217-JanDenverL01429303.45%86.67%7.16%90.86%50.9%1328.0
1323-JanW MichiganW370302323.33%100.00%8.40%91.42%51.3%1635.8
1424-JanW MichiganL02335245.71%87.50%8.18%91.18%51.9%1634.8
1530-JanColorado CollegeW371332221.21%95.45%9.11%91.41%52.4%1940.3
1631-JanColorado CollegeW361422414.29%95.83%9.54%91.65%53.2%2244.1
1713-FebMinnesota DuluthL024203410.00%88.24%9.56%91.40%52.3%2242.2
1814-FebMinnesota DuluthW341282214.29%95.45%9.80%91.58%52.5%2544.0
1920-FebNebraska OmahaW343392610.26%88.46%9.83%91.43%52.9%2844.3
2021-FebNebraska OmahaW32032216.25%100.00%9.65%91.76%53.3%3145.1
2127-FebNorth DakotaL02324308.33%90.00%9.60%91.67%52.9%3144.0
2228-FebNorth DakotaL01328293.57%89.66%9.35%91.57%52.7%3142.3
236-MarDenverL02342244.76%87.50%9.08%91.41%53.2%3141.4
247-MarDenverW342362011.11%90.00%9.18%91.37%53.7%3442.3

GameDateOpponentResultPtsGFGASHFSHASH% SV%Sea. SH%Sea. SV%Sea. Poss.Sea. Pts.Model
117-OctNebraska OmahaL02539265.13%80.77%5.13%80.77%60.0%00.3
218-OctNebraska OmahaL00318240.00%87.50%3.51%84.00%53.3%0-7.5
37-NovDenverL045283514.29%85.71%7.06%84.71%50.0%05.9
48-NovDenverW363263823.08%92.11%10.81%86.99%47.4%326.8
514-NovSt. Cloud StateL03434188.82%77.78%10.34%85.82%50.7%324.9
615-NovSt. Cloud StateT21123224.35%95.45%9.52%87.12%50.8%525.7
721-NovMiamiL00123280.00%96.43%8.38%88.48%50.0%524.2
822-NovMiamiL02525328.00%84.38%8.33%87.89%49.2%521.1
912-DecColorado CollegeW332292010.34%90.00%8.57%88.07%50.2%824.0
1013-DecColorado CollegeT21136262.78%96.15%7.83%88.85%51.1%1024.5
1116-JanMinnesota DuluthT222162612.50%92.31%8.08%89.15%50.2%1225.4
1217-JanMinnesota DuluthW342272714.81%92.59%8.64%89.44%50.2%1528.8
1323-JanSt. Cloud StateL00723300.00%76.67%8.07%88.35%49.6%1522.0
1424-JanSt. Cloud StateW332243512.50%94.29%8.36%88.89%48.9%1824.2
1531-JanMiamiT133274211.11%92.86%8.54%89.28%48.1%1925.3
161-FebMiamiL034283910.71%89.74%8.69%89.32%47.7%1925.5
1713-FebNebraska OmahaW32129316.90%96.77%8.57%89.78%47.7%2226.6
1814-FebNebraska OmahaL01329343.45%91.18%8.26%89.87%47.6%2225.4
1920-FebNorth DakotaL01334332.94%90.91%7.92%89.93%47.8%2224.3
2021-FebNorth DakotaL02336305.56%90.00%7.76%89.93%48.2%2221.1
2127-FebColorado CollegeT22252253.85%92.00%7.43%90.02%49.4%2424.4
2228-FebColorado CollegeL00527260.00%80.77%7.11%89.64%49.5%2421.9
236-MarMinnesota DuluthL036283110.71%80.65%7.26%89.23%49.4%2421.1
247-MarMinnesota DuluthW330301810.00%100.00%7.38%89.51%49.8%2723.1

Site designed by Joel Gehringer
2014